[ÅõÀÚ·Ð] ¿ö·» ¹öÆêÀÇ ±â¾÷ ³»Àç°¡Ä¡(intrinsic value) Æò°¡¹ý
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À̸íÇå (@Çǵå¹é), 2004-2-4

±â¾÷ÀÇ °¡Ä¡Æò°¡(Valuation) ¶Ç´Â Æò°¡´Â ¸¹Àº ³í¶õÀÌ ÀÖ´Â ºÎºÐÀÌ°í ¸î °¡Áö ÀÌ·ÐÀÌ °¢ÀÚ Àå´ÜÁ¡À» °®°í È°¿ëµÇ°í ÀÖ´Â ºÐ¾ßÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ¹ë·ù¿¡À̼ÇÀº ¿¹Ãø(forcasting)ÀÇ ÃÖÁ¾´Ü°è·Î ´Ù¾çÇÑ ¿ëµµ°¡ ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù. M&A¸¦ ÇÒ ¶§ ÀμöÇÒ È¸»ç¸¦ ¾ó¸¶¿¡ ÁÖ°í »ç¾ß ÇÒ °ÍÀΰ¡ÀÇ ¹®Á¦³ª ¾î¶² ±â¾÷ÀÇ ÀûÁ¤ÁÖ°¡¸¦ Ãß»êÇÏ´Â ¹®Á¦µéÀº ¹ë·ù¿¡À̼ǰú Á÷Á¢ÀûÀ¸·Î °ü·ÃµÇ¾î ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù. ÀÌ ±Û¿¡¼­ ¼Ò°³ÇÏ´Â ¹öÇÍÀÇ ³»Àç°¡Ä¡ °è»ê¹ýÀ» ÀÌÇØÇϱâ À§Çؼ­´Â ¹è´çÀÚº»È¯¿ø ¸ðÇüÀ» ÀÌÇØÇÏ°í ÀÖ¾î¾ß ÇÕ´Ï´Ù. Ȥ½Ã ¾ÆÁ÷ ÀоÁö ¾Ê¾Ò´Ù¸é ¸ÕÀú ÀÐ°í ¿À¼¼¿ä. È­ÆóÀÇ ½Ã°£°¡Ä¡¿Í º¹¸®µµ °ü·ÃÀÌ ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù.

±×·¯¸é ¹öÇÍÀÌ "An Owner's Manual"¿¡¼­ ¹àÈù ±â¾÷ÀÇ ³»Àç°¡Ä¡¿¡ ´ëÇؼ­ Àо°í DCF ºÐ¼®¹ý¿¡ ´ëÇØ ´õ »ý°¢ÇØ º¾½Ã´Ù. ¹öÇÍÀº ¿Ö ±â¾÷ÀÇ ÀåºÎ°¡Ä¡°¡ ÁøÁ¤ÇÑ ±â¾÷ÀÇ °¡Ä¡¸¦ ¹Ý¿µÇÒ ¼ö ¾ø´ÂÁö¿¡ ´ëÇØ ´ëÇб³À°À» ¿¹·Î µé¾î ¾Ë±â ½±°Ô ¼³¸íÇÏ°í ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù. ¹öÇÍÀÇ ±Û ¹ø¿ªÀÔ´Ï´Ù.

¹öÇÍÀÌ ¸»ÇÏ´Â ±â¾÷ÀÇ ³»Àç°¡Ä¡(Intrinsic Value)

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¸ÕÀú, ±× ´ëÇÐ Á¹¾÷ÀÚ°¡ Æò»ý¿¡ °ÉÃÄ ¹ö´Â ¼öÀÔ¿¡¼­ ´ëÇÐ ±³À°À» ¹ÞÁö ¾Ê¾ÒÀ» °æ¿ì ¹ú¾úÀ» ¼öÀÔÀ» »©¾ß ÇÕ´Ï´Ù. ±×·¸°Ô °è»êÇÑ ¼ýÀÚ´Â ´ëÇÐ ±³À° ¶§¹®¿¡ ºÎ°¡ÀûÀ¸·Î ¾ò°Ô µÈ ¼öÀÔÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ÀÌÁ¦ ±× ¼ýÀÚ¸¦ ÀûÀýÇÑ ÀÌÀ²À» ÀÌ¿ëÇؼ­ Á¹¾÷ÇÑ ½ÃÁ¡¿¡¼­ÀÇ ÇöÀç°¡Ä¡·Î ÇÒÀÎÇÕ´Ï´Ù. ¹Ù·Î ±× ¼ýÀÚ°¡ ´ëÇÐ ±³À°ÀÇ °æÁ¦Àû ³»Àç°¡Ä¡ÀÔ´Ï´Ù.

¾î¶² ´ëÇÐ Á¹¾÷ÀÚ´Â ´ëÇÐ ±³À°ÀÇ ÀåºÎ°¡Ä¡°¡ ³»Àç°¡Ä¡¸¦ ³ÑÀ» °ÍÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ´ëÇÐ ±³À°À» À§ÇØ ÁöºÒÇß´ø ºñ¿ëº¸´Ù ´õ ÀûÀº ¾×¼ö¸¸À» ¹ø °ÍÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ´Ù¸¥ Á¹¾÷ÀÚÀÇ °æ¿ì ±³À°ÀÇ ³»Àç°¡Ä¡´Â ÀåºÎ°¡Ä¡¸¦ ÈξÀ ÃÊ°úÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù. ÀÚº»À» Çö¸íÇÏ°Ô ÇÒ´çÇÑ °ÍÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ¾î·µç ¸ðµç °æ¿ì¿¡ À־, ÀåºÎ°¡Ä¡°¡ ³»Àç°¡Ä¡ÀÇ °¡´ÆÀڷνá Àǹ̰¡ ¾ø´Ù´Â °ÍÀº ¸íÈ®ÇÕ´Ï´Ù.

INTRINSIC VALUE [1]

Now let's focus on a term that I mentioned earlier and that you will encounter in future annual reports.

Intrinsic value is an all-important concept that offers the only logical approach to evaluating the relative attractiveness of investments and businesses. Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of a business during its remaining life.

The calculation of intrinsic value, though, is not so simple. As our definition suggests, intrinsic value is an estimate rather than a precise figure, and it is additionally an estimate that must be changed if interest rates move or forecasts of future cash flows are revised. Two people looking at the same set of facts, moreover ? and this would apply even to Charlie and me ? will almost inevitably come up with at least slightly different intrinsic value figures. That is one reason we never give you our estimates of intrinsic value. What our annual reports do supply, though, are the facts that we ourselves use to calculate this value.

Meanwhile, we regularly report our per-share book value, an easily calculable number, though one of limited use. The limitations do not arise from our holdings of marketable securities, which are carried on our books at their current prices. Rather the inadequacies of book value have to do with the companies we control, whose values as stated on our books may be far different from their intrinsic values.

The disparity can go in either direction. For example, in 1964 we could state with certitude that Berkshire's per-share book value was $19.46. However, that figure considerably overstated the company's intrinsic value, since all of the company's resources were tied up in a sub-profitable textile business. Our textile assets had neither going-concern nor liquidation values equal to their carrying values. Today, however, Berkshire's situation is reversed: Now, our book value far understates Berkshire's intrinsic value, a point true because many of the businesses we control are worth much more than their carrying value.

Inadequate though they are in telling the story, we give you Berkshire's book-value figures because they today serve as a rough, albeit significantly understated, tracking measure for Berkshire's intrinsic value. In other words, the percentage change in book value in any given year is likely to be reasonably close to that year's change in intrinsic value.

You can gain some insight into the differences between book value and intrinsic value by looking at one form of investment, a college education. Think of the education's cost as its "book value." If this cost is to be accurate, it should include the earnings that were foregone by the student because he chose college rather than a job.

For this exercise, we will ignore the important non-economic benefits of an education and focus strictly on its economic value. First, we must estimate the earnings that the graduate will receive over his lifetime and subtract from that figure an estimate of what he would have earned had he lacked his education. That gives us an excess earnings figure, which must then be discounted, at an appropriate interest rate, back to graduation day. The dollar result equals the intrinsic economic value of the education.

Some graduates will find that the book value of their education exceeds its intrinsic value, which means that whoever paid for the education didn't get his money's worth. In other cases, the intrinsic value of an education will far exceed its book value, a result that proves capital was wisely deployed. In all cases, what is clear is that book value is meaningless as an indicator of intrinsic value.


[1] Warren E. Buffet. Intrinsic Value. An Owner's Manual, 1996.



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Equity value = FCF1/(1+r) + FCF2/(1+r)2 + ...
= Owner Earnings1/(1+r) + Owner Earnings2/(1+r)2 + ...

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'durable'ÇÑ ¸ðµ¨À» °®°í À־ ¸î ³â, ¸î½Ê ³âÀÌ Áö³ªµµ º¯ÇÔ¾ø´Â Çö±ÝÈ帧À» ¸¸µé¾î ³¾ °¡´É¼ºÀÌ ³ôÀº ÄÚÄ«ÄÝ¶ó °°Àº ȸ»ç°¡ ³»Àç°¡Ä¡°¡ Ź¿ùÇÑ ÁÁÀº ȸ»çÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ±×·± ȸ»çÀÇ ³»Àç°¡Ä¡¸¦ ¹Ì·¡ Çö±ÝÈ帧ÀÇ ÇöÀç°¡Ä¡·Î °è»êÇÑ µÚ ½Ã°¡ÃѾ×ÀÌ ±×¿¡ ÈξÀ ¸ø ¹ÌÄ¡¸é ±¸ÀÔÇÏ°í °è»êµÈ ³»Àç°¡Ä¡¸¦ Áö³ªÄ¡°Ô ÃÊ°úÇÒ Á¤µµ·Î ¿À¸£¸é ÆË´Ï´Ù.[2] ±×·¸°Ô ÅõÀÚÇÒ ±â¾÷ÀÇ ÀûÀýÇÑ °¡Ä¡¿Í ÁÖ°¡¸¦ ³»Àç°¡Ä¡¸¦ ÀÌ¿ëÇؼ­ °è»êÇÏ°í ³­ µÚ¿¡ ÅõÀÚ¸¦ ÇØ¾ß ½ÃÀåÀÇ Ãâ··°Å¸²¿¡ º°·Î ½Å°æÀ» ¾²Áö ¾ÊÀ» ¼ö ÀÖ°Ô µÇ°í, ³ª¾Æ°¡ ¿ªÀÌ¿ëÇÒ ¼ö ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù.

ÃÖ»óÀÇ ±â¾÷Àº ¸¹Àº ÀÚº»À» ÅõÀÚÇϸ鼭 ¸Å¿ì ³ôÀº ROE¸¦ °è¼Ó ±â·ÏÇÒ ¼ö Àִ ȸ»çÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ÀÌ·± ȸ»ç´Â Å« À׿©Çö±ÝÈ帧À» Áö¼ÓÀûÀ¸·Î âÃâÇÕ´Ï´Ù. ¹Ý´ë·Î ÀÚº»ÀûÁöÃâÀº ³ôÀ¸¸é¼­ ROE´Â ³·Àº ±â¾÷Àº ÃÖ¾ÇÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ÀÌÀÍÀÇ ´ëºÎºÐÀÌ ÇöÀçÀÇ À§Ä¡¸¦ À¯ÁöÇϱâ À§ÇÑ ÀÚº»Àç ±¸Ãà ¹× ¾÷±×·¹À̵忡 ¼Ò¿äµÇ¹Ç·Î ÁÖÁÖ¿¡°Ô ÀǹÌÀִ ݣ´Â ÁÙ¾îµé±â ¶§¹®ÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ºÎ°¡Àû ÀÚº»ÅõÇÏ°¡ Å©°Ô ÇÊ¿äÄ¡ ¾ÊÀ¸¸é¼­ ROE°¡ ³ôÀº ±â¾÷Àº ÃàÀûµÈ ÀÌÀÍÀ׿©±ÝÀ» ¹è´çÀ̳ª ÀÚ»çÁÖ¸ÅÀÔÀÇ ÇüÅ·ΠµÇµ¹·Á ÁÖ°í ÀÖ´Ù¸é ÈǸ¢ÇÑ È¸»çÀÔ´Ï´Ù. °¡Àå ÁÁÀº ȸ»ç´Â ºÎ°¡ÀûÀÎ Å« ÀÚº»ÀÌ ¼Ò¿äµÇ¸é¼­ ROEµµ ¸Å¿ì ³ôÀº ±â¾÷ÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ÀÌ·± ±â¾÷Àº ¸¹Áö ¾Ê½À´Ï´Ù.[3]

[2] ¹öÇÍÀº ¸î¸î º¸À¯ÁÖ½ÄÀ» 'Permanant Holdings'¶ó°í ÀÏÄÃÀ¸¸ç °¡°ÝÀÌ ¾Æ¹«¸® ¿Ã¶óµµ ÆÈÁö ¾Ê½À´Ï´Ù. ¹Ý´ë·Î °¡°ÝÀÌ Æø¶ôÇÏ¸é ´õ »çµéÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ±¸ÀÔÇÑ ÁÖ½ÄÀ» °ÅÀÇ ´ëºÎºÐ 10¿© ³â ÀÌ»ó º¸À¯ÇÏ´Â ¹öÇÍ¿¡°Ôµµ ¿©±â¿¡ ¼ÓÇÏ´Â ¸î °³ÀÇ È¸»çµéÀº ÇöÀúÇÏ°Ô ÈǸ¢ÇÑ ºñÁî´Ï½ºÀ̹ǷΠ¾Æ¹«¸® °¡°ÝÀÌ ¿Ã¶óµµ ÆÈÁö ¾Ê°í °è¼Ó º¸À¯ÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ¿µ¿øÈ÷ º¸À¯ÇÒ È¸»ç¿¡ ¼ÓÇÏ´Â °ÍÀ¸·Î´Â Washington Post, The Coca-Cola Company, GEICO µîÀÌ ÀÖ½À´Ï´Ù. GEICO´Â ȸ»çÀÇ 100%¸¦ ¼ÒÀ¯Çؼ­ ÀÌÁ¦´Â ÀÚȸ»ç°¡ µÇ¾ú½À´Ï´Ù.

ÀÌ·¸°Ô ÆÈÁö ¾Ê°í °è¼Ó º¸À¯ÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÌ ´Ü¼øÈ÷ ¾î¶² ºñ°æÁ¦ÀûÀÎ ¿ä¼Ò(ÃÖ°í°æ¿µÀÚ¿ÍÀÇ Ä£ºÐÀ̳ª ¹öÇÍ°ú ¿À·¡ ÀüºÎÅÍ Àο¬ÀÌ ±íÀº ȸ»ç °°Àº) ¶§¹®Àϱî¿ä? ±×·± Á¡ÀÌ ¾î´À Á¤µµ ÀÛ¿ëÇÑ °Í°°Àº ȸ»çµµ ÀÖ±â´Â ÇÕ´Ï´Ù. ÇÏÁö¸¸ ¹öÇÍÀÌ ÀÌ È¸»çµéÀ» ¿µ¿øÈ÷ º¸À¯ÇÏ°Ú´Ù°í ¾ê±âÇÏ°í ¶Ç ±×·¸°Ô ÇØ¿À°í ÀÖ´Â °áÁ¤Àû ÀÌÀ¯´Â º¸À¯ÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÌ ÀÌÀÍÀ̱⠶§¹®ÀÔ´Ï´Ù. Ź¿ùÇÑ È¸»ç, º¹¸®½ÄÀ¸·Î ¼ºÀåÇØ °¡´Â ȸ»ç¿¡ ÅõÀÚÇÑ °æ¿ì ½Ã°£Àº ÅõÀÚÀÚ ÆíÀ̱⠶§¹®ÀÔ´Ï´Ù.

óÀ½ ±¸ÀÔÇÒ ¶§ºÎÅÍ °¡±ÞÀû ¿µ¿øÈ÷ ÆÈÁö ¾ÊÀ» ȸ»ç¸¦ ±¸ÀÔÇÏ´Â °Ô ÃÖ»óÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ¼ö½Ê ³â¿¡ °ÉÃļ­ Áö¼ÓÀûÀ¸·Î GDP ¼ºÀåÀ²À» ´É°¡ÇÏ´Â ¼ºÀåÀ» °è¼ÓÇÏ´Â ÈǸ¢ÇÑ È¸»çÀÎ °æ¿ì ÆÝ´õ¸àƲ¿¡ º¯È­°¡ ÀÖ´Â °ÍÀÌ ¾Æ´Ñ ÇÑ °ÅÀÇ ÆÈ ÀÌÀ¯°¡ ¾ø½À´Ï´Ù. ´ÜÁö '¸¹ÀÌ ¿Ã¶ú±â ¶§¹®¿¡ ÆÇ´Ù.'´Â °ÍÀº ±× ȸ»ç°¡ Ź¿ùÇÑ È¸»çÀÎ °æ¿ì Á¤¸» ¾î¸®¼®Àº ÇൿÀÔ´Ï´Ù. ±×·³¿¡µµ ¸¹Àº Æݵå¸Å´ÏÁ®µé°ú °³ÀÎÅõÀÚÀÚµéÀÌ ÀÌ·± ÇÔÁ¤¿¡ ºüÁý´Ï´Ù. ¿©±â¿¡ °üÇؼ­´Â ¹öÇÍ¿¡°Ô Å« ¿µÇâÀ» ÁØ ¶Ç ÇÑ ¸íÀÇ Àü¼³Àû ÅõÀÚÀÚ Çʸ³ ÇǼÅ(Philip Fisher)°¡ ±×ÀÇ Àú¼­ "Common stocks and uncommon profits"¿¡¼­ Àç¹ÌÀÖ´Â ¿¹¸¦ ÅëÇØ Àß ¼³¸íÇÏ°í Àֱ⵵ ÇÕ´Ï´Ù.
[3] Warren E. Buffett. Shareholder Letter. 1992.
"Leaving the question of price aside, the best business to own is one that over an extended period can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return. The worst business to own is one that must, or will, do the opposite - that is, consistently employ ever-greater amounts of capital at very low rates of return. Unfortunately, the first type of business is very hard to find: Most high-return businesses need relatively little capital. Shareholders of such a business usually will benefit if it pays out most of its earnings in dividends or makes significant stock repurchases."