¡¤ Àü·«Àû °¡Ä¡ÅõÀÚ Æ÷Æ®Æú¸®¿À No.1 (2011-08-11, since 2009-08-03)
1. ÅõÀÚÁöÇ¥(www.krx.co.kr, http://ecos.bok.or.kr, www.mosf.go.kr, www.kosis.kr
A. Kospi PBR = (2010-07 ±âÁØ) 1.39, (2011³â ½ÃÀ忹»ó PBR=??)
i. ±ÝÀ¶À§±â ±âÁ¡ ÃÖ°í PBR(2007-10) = 1.9, ÃÖÀú PBR(2009-02) = 0.89
ii. 2010-03¿¡ PBR=1.55 ÀÌÈÄ °¨¼ÒÇÏ°í ÀÖÀ½.
B. Kospi PER = (2011-07 ±âÁØ) 12.84, (2011³â ½ÃÀ忹»ó PER=??)
i. ±ÝÀ¶À§±â ±âÁ¡ ÃÖ°í PER(2007-10 ±âÁØ) = 18.22, ÃÖÀú PER(2009-02 ±âÁØ) = 8.47
ii. 2010-03¿¡ PER=18.39 ÀÌÈÄ °¨¼ÒÇÏ°í ÀÖÀ½.
C. GDP(2010³â 2,3,4ºÐ±â+2011³â 1ºÐ±â) = (294.4+297.9+312.7+288.2) = 1193.2Á¶¿ø
i. http://www.mosf.go.kr/_lib/lib01/lib01b.jsp
D. (KOSPI+KOSDAQ)½Ã°¡ÃѾ×/GDP =(2011-07 ±âÁØ) (1203.57+109.78)1313.35/1193.2 = 110.06%
i. http://www.krx.co.kr/m2/m2_5/m2_5_1/m2_5_1_2/JHPKOR02005_01_02.jsp
ii. ¿ª»çÀûÀ¸·Î ³·Àº ¼öÁØÀº ¾Æ´Ô.
E. ½Å¿ë½ºÇÁ·¹µå(ȸ»çä±Ý¸®(AA-) - ±¹°íä ±Ý¸®(3³â))=(2011-08-12 ±âÁØ) 4.22% - 3.49% = 0.73%
i. ÃÖ°í CS(2008-12)=8.35%-3.97%=4.38%, ÃÖÀú CS (2006-05)=5.05%-4.78%=0.27%
ii. ¸®½ºÅ© °¨¼öÇü ÅõÀÚ»óÅÂ
F. Àå´Ü±â ±Ý¸®Â÷(±¹°íä (3³â)-±âÁرݸ®) =(2011-08-12 ±âÁØ) 3.49% - 3.25% = 0.24%
i. http://www.bok.or.kr/baserate/baserateList.action?menuNaviId=33
ii. ±âÁرݸ®°¡ ´çºÐ°£(2³â Á¤µµ?) µ¿°á ¶Ç´Â ±Þ»ó½ÂÇÏÁö´Â ¾ÊÀ» °ÍÀ¸·Î ÆǴܵÊ.
G. ±âÁرݸ® ÀûÁ¤¼öÁØ(Àå±â±ÕÇü ½ÇÁú±Ý¸®(0.8%: 2002~2009³â Æò±Õ)+¼ÒºñÀÚ¹°°¡»ó½Â·ü(4.7%)) = 5.5%
i. http://www.kosis.kr/abroad/abroad_01List.jsp
ii. ÀûÁ¤¼öÁØ ±âÁرݸ®¿Í ÇöÇà ±âÁرݸ®¿ÍÀÇ °¸ = 5.5% - 3.25% = 2.25%
iii. ±âÁرݸ® »ó½Â¾Ð·ÂÀº Áõ°¡ÇÏ°í ÀÖÀ½. ±×·¯³ª ±Ý¸®µ¿°á ´çºÐ°£ Áö¼ÓµÉ °ÍÀ¸·Î ÆǴܵÊ.
H. Yield Gap((1/PER) – (3³â)±¹°íä±Ý¸®) (2011-07 ±âÁØ) = 7.78% - 3.49% = 4.29%
i. Yield Ratio = 7.78/3.49 = 2.22
ii. ä±Çº¸´Ù ÁÖ½Ä?
I. À¯µ¿¼ºÁöÇ¥(M1/GDP) = (2011-06 ÆòÀÜ) 421.88Á¶/1193.2Á¶ = 35.35%
i. (2007-10 ±âÁØ)=30.56%, (2009-02 ±âÁØ)=31.41%
ii. Å« À¯µ¿¼º »óÅ·ΠÆľǵÊ
J. °æ»ó¼öÁö(¾ï´Þ·¯): 3¿ù=13.30, 4¿ù=12.78, 5¿ù=21.84, 6¿ù=29.88
i. ÃÑ¿Üä(2011-03 ±âÁØ) = 3,819¾ï ´Þ·¯, ¿Üȯº¸À¯¾×(2011-06 ±âÁØ) = 3,044.8¾ï ´Þ·¯
K. ´Þ·¯/¿ø ȯÀ² (2011-08-12 ±âÁØ) = 1,084.59¿ø
i. Àú±Ý¸® À¯Áö ¾à¼ÓÀ¸·Î À̸ÓÁö ¸¶ÄÏ ´ëºñ ¾à¼¼ Àü¸Á.
L. ½Ç¾÷·ü(û³â½Ç¾÷·ü): (2011-04) 3.7(8.7)% -> (2011-05) 3.2(7.3)% -> (2011-06) 3.3(7.6)%
i. °üÂû ¿ä¸Á
M. Åë°èû °æ±â¼øȯ½Ã°è(http://kosis.kr/bcc/main.html): (2011-06 ±âÁØ) ??½Ã, (ÇöÀç´Â ??½Ã)
i. '¼ÒºñÀÚ±â´ëÁö¼ö'´Â ¹Ù´Ú»óÅÂÀÌ°í,
ii. '°Ç¼³±â¼º¾×'¿Í '¼ºñ½º¾÷»ý»êÁö¼ö'´Â ¹Ù´ÚÀ» Ä¡°í ȸº¹ ÈÄ »ó½Â±¹¸é¿¡ ÀÖ´Â °ÍÀ¸·Î ÆǴܵ˴ϴÙ.
iii. '¼öÃâ¾×'°ú 'Ãë¾÷ÀÚ¼ö', '¼öÀÔ¾×', '¼Ò¸ÅÆǸž×Áö¼ö', '¼³ºñÅõÀÚÁö¼ö' ´Â
iv. ½ÉÇÑ ¹Ù´ÚÀ» Ä¡Áö ¾Ê°í µÐÈ¿¡¼ »ó½Â±¹¸éÀ¸·Î ¿Å°Ü °£ °ÍÀ¸·Î ÆǴܵ˴ϴÙ.
v. °æ±â¸¦ ÆÇ´ÜÇϱⰡ ¹«Ã´ ¾î·Á¿î »óȲÀÔ´Ï´Ù.
2. Æ÷Æ®Æú¸®¿À ¿î¿µ¾È
A. ÇöºñÁß = ÁÖ½Ä : ´ë¾ÈÅõÀÚ : ä±Ç : Çö±Ýä±Ç = 44.99 : 11.29 : 28.46 : 18.28
i. ÁÖ½Ä: Kodex 200, HIT º¸Çè, Kodex ÀºÇà
i. ¹Ì±¹ ¹ö³ÃÅ°¾¾°¡ 2013³â Á߹ݱîÁö ±Ý¸®µ¿°áÇÑ´Ù°í Çϳ׿ä. Çæ~~
ii. º¸Çè ¼ÕÀý¸Å ÇÏ·Á°í ÇÕ´Ï´Ù.
1. ¿ª»çÀÇ ¼ö·¹¹ÙÄû´Â Ç×»ó ¶È°°ÀÌ °¡Áö ¾Ê´Â±º¿ä.
2. ¾Æ´Ï¸é, ³»°¡ ±ÝÀ¶ÀÇ ¿ª»ç¿¡ ´ëÇØ ¹» ¸ð¸£°Å³ª!
ii. ´ë¾ÈÅõÀÚ: Kodex Brazil, Kodex China H, TIGER ³ª½º´Ú 100 ETF, TIGER ³ó¼ö»ê¹° ¼±¹°(H), Kodex Japan
i. À½¡¦ ÀϺ»Àº Á¤¸» ¾Ë ¼ö ¾ø´Â ³ª¶ó±º¿ä. ¼ÕÀý¸Å ÇÏ·Á°í ÇÕ´Ï´Ù.
1. Àü·Â»çÁ¤ µîµî ±¸Á¶ÀûÀÎ ¹®Á¦·Î ¹ÝµîÀÌ ½±Áö ¾ÊÀ» °Í °°½À´Ï´Ù.
ii. ÀÌ»ó±âÈÄ, À̸Ó¡±¹°¡ ¼ÒµæÁõ´ë µîµî ³ó¼ö»ê¹°Àº Á¶±Ý ´õ ¸Å¼öÇÏ·Á°í ÇÕ´Ï´Ù.
iii. ä±Ç: Kodex ±¹Ã¤
i. .
iv. Çö±Ýä±Ç: Kosef ´Ü±âÀÚ±Ý(6°³¿ù ¸¸±â Åë¾Èä)
i. .
B. ÇâÈÄ ºñÁß °èȹ = ÁÖ½Ä : ´ë¾ÈÅõÀÚ : ä±Ç : Çö±Ýä±Ç = 50 : 10 : 25 : 15
i. (Á߸³ »óÅ = ÁÖ½Ä : ´ë¾ÈÅõÀÚ : ä±Ç : Çö±Ýä±Ç = 40 : 10 : 40 : 10 )
ii. ÁÖ½Ä: ÁÖ°¡Ç϶ôÀ¸·Î ºñÁßÀÌ ÁÙ¾ú½À´Ï´Ù. ºñÁßÀ» ´Ã¸®·Á°í ÇÕ´Ï´Ù.
iii. ´ë¾ÈÅõÀÚ: ºñÁßÀÌ ´Ã¾î ÁÙÀÌ·Á°í ÇÕ´Ï´Ù.
iv. ä±Ç: Çö »óÅ À¯Áö ÇÏ·Á°í ÇÕ´Ï´Ù.
v. Çö±Ýä±Ç: ºñÁßÀ» ÁÙÀÌ·Á ÇÕ´Ï´Ù.
3. Æ÷Æ®Æú¸®¿À °á°ú
A. ºñ±³Áö¼ö ¼öÀÍ·ü(KODEX200) = 14.39%(¿¬ 7.19%)
B. Àüü ¼öÀÍ·ü = 12.16% (¿¬ 6.08%)(ºñ±³Áö¼ö¿Í ¼öÀÍ·ü Â÷= -2.23%)
i. Áö³ 5¿ù ÀÌÈÄ ÁÖ±âÀûÀ¸·Î Á¡°Ë°ú Á¶Á¤À» Çß¾ú´Ù¸é,
ii. 6¿ù ~7¿ù µÎ ´Þ°£ º£À̺ñ ½ºÅÜÀ¸·Î Á߸³ÀûÀÎ Æ÷Æ®Æú¸®¿À¿¡ º¸´Ù Á¢±ÙÇßÀ» ÅÙµ¥ ¾Æ½±±º¿ä.
C. °ËÅä°á°ú
i. ÇöÀç¿Í °°Àº ±Þ º¯µ¿¼º Àå¼¼°¡ Àü·«Àû Æ÷Æ®Æú¸®¿ÀÀÇ °¡Àå Å« ÀåÁ¡ÀÌ ¹ßÈֵǴ ¼ø°£ÀÎ °Í °°½À´Ï´Ù.
ii. Æ÷Æ®Æú¸®¿À 2³â ¿î¿ëÈÄÀÇ ±³ÈÆ
i. ÁÖ±âÀûÀ¸·Î Æ÷Æ®Æú¸®¿À¸¦ Á¡°ËÇÏ°í Á¶Á¤ÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÌ Áß¿äÇÏ´Ù.
1. Àû´çÇÑ Áֱ⸦ °¡Áö°í Á¤±âÀûÀ¸·Î Æ÷Æ®Æú¸®¿À¸¦ Á¡°ËÇÏ°í Á¶Á¤ÇÏÁö ¾ÊÀ¸¸é ,
2. ±âȸ¸¦ ÀâÁö ¸øÇÑ´Ù. À½¡¦ ÅõÀÚ±ÝÀÌ ÀÛÀ¸´Ï ±ÍÂ÷´ÏÁò¿¡ ºüÁ³´Ù.
ii. Àû´çÇÑ ´ë¾ÈÅõÀÚ´Â »ó½ÂÀå ¶Ç´Â Á¤Ã¼Àå¿¡¼ ÀÌ¿ÜÀÇ ¼öÀÍ·üÀ» Á¦°øÇÑ´Ù.
iii. ä±ÇÅõÀÚ´Â Ç϶ôÀå¿¡¼ ¼öÀÍ·üÀ» ¹æ¾îÇÏ°í ÇâÈÄÀÇ °ø°Ý¿ë ½ÇźÀ» Á¦°øÇÑ´Ù.
D. ÇâÈÄ Àü·«
i. ¾ÕÀ¸·Î´Â ²À! ¸Å´Þ ¸»ÀÏ¿¡ Æ÷Æ®Æú¸®¿À¸¦ Á¡°ËÇÏ°í Á¶Á¤ÇÒ °ÍÀÓ.
i. ¾ÕÀ¸·Î Àß ¾È Çϸé, Àú Á» Ǫ½¬ ÇØÁÖ¼¼¿ä. ^.^
ii. º°°Å ¾Æ´Ñ ³»¿ëµµ Á¤¸®Çϴµ¥ ¹Ý³ªÀý °É¸®´Â ±º¿ä. ¤Ð.¤Ð
ii. Ưº°ÇÑ ÀÏÀÌ ¾øÀ¸¸é ÇâÈÄ 2³â µ¿¾È ±Ý¸®´Â µ¿°áµÉ °Í °°±º¿ä.
iii. ²É³îÀÌÆа¡ Çϳª ¶¹´Âµ¥ ¾î¶»°Ô ¿ä¸®ÇØ¾ß ÇÒÁö ¿¬±¸¸¦ ÇØ¾ß ÇÒ »óȲÀÎ °Í °°½À´Ï´Ù.
iv. È®½ÇÈ÷ Àú±Ý¸®°¡ À¯ÁöµÈ´Ù¸é, ·¹¹ö¸®Áö ÅõÀÚ´Â ¶¥ ¤°í Çì¾öÄ¡´Â Àü·«ÀÏ °Í °°±¸¿ä.
v. ÅõÀÚó·Î´Â Àú±Ý¸® »óȲ¿¡¼´Â ÇÏÀÌÆÛ ÀÎÇ÷¹ÀÌ¼Ç °¡´É¼ºÀÌ ³óÈÄÇÏ´Ï,
vi. ½Ç¹°Àڻ꿡 ÅõÀÚÇÏ´Â °ÍÀÌ ÁÁÀ» °ÍÀ¸·Î ÆǴܵ˴ϴÙ.
i. °È¸Àå´Ô¿¡ ÆDZ³¿¡ ¶¥À» »ç¼Ì´Ù°í Çϴµ¥,
1. http://www.mt.co.kr/view/mtview.php?type=1&no=2011060711310222245&outlink=1
ii. ºÎµ¿»êÀÌ ´ëÇ¥ÀûÀÎ ½Ç¹°ÀÚ»ê ¾Æ´Ï°Ú¾î¿ä¡¦ ±¸¹Ì°¡ ¸¹ÀÌ ´ç±â´Â ±º¿ä.
iii. ¹¹~~ ÀÌ·± ÀÚ±ØÀûÀÎ ±â»çµµ ¶ß°í¡¦ '1Á¶ ºÎÀÚ´Ô'ÀÌ ÄÚ¸àÆ® ÇØÁÖ¸é ±Ý»ó÷ÈÀ¦ ^.^
1. http://biz.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/08/13/2011081300152.html
iv. ÈÞ°¡ ¶§ ÆDZ³ ºÎµ¿»êÀ̳ª º¸·¯ °¥°Å³ª~~~^.^